Private beta. Proof-first recommendations.
Summary: WeatherVane recommends how much to shift your ad spend in each market based on forecasted demand lift. It includes expected lift, confidence, and the conditions that would change the recommendation.
DMA
Designated Market Area. The boundary used for buying ads in a region.
SPF
Sun Protection Factor. A common rating for sun protection products.
UV
Ultraviolet index. A measure of sun intensity.

Reach weather-sensitive buyers exactly when they’re ready to buy.

Large Causal Demand Models forecast market-by-market demand changes and recommend marketing and ad moves with backtested expected returns.

Market-by-market demand forecasts with backtested expected returns.

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Sunscreen brand hero subject holding a zinc SPF bottle

Built for weather-sensitive demand.

Sunscreen bottleSunscreen
Allergy medicationAllergy
Rain jacketRain gear
HumidifierHumidifiers
Air conditionerCooling
Sports drinkSports drinks
GeneratorGenerators
Summer toySummer toys
Convertible carConvertibles
☀️Sun care🤧Cold & flu OTC🌧️Outdoor gear🍦Ice cream & frozen🧊Iced beverages🌿Lawn & garden🐕Pet seasonal🧥Seasonal apparel🏖️Beach & pool❄️Heating & insulation🌦️Home comfort🚗Auto seasonal🏪Retail & e-commerce🏨Hospitality🏗️ConstructionEnergy & utilities🚚Logistics🌾Agriculture🎭Events & entertainment🏥Healthcare
$3 trillion in U.S. commerce is weather-sensitive.

That’s a Department of Commerce finding—one third of private industry revenue shifts with the forecast. WeatherVane builds a demand model from your sales history and market-level weather data, calculates the revenue impact market by market, and tells you exactly what to change. Every recommendation ships with the math behind it.

BacktestBreak conditionUncertaintyHoldout-ready

The WeatherVane platform

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The Problem

Weather is already moving your revenue. You’re not operationalizing it.

A temperature swing, UV spike, or humidity drop changes what people buy and when. That demand shift shows up in your orders and paid performance.

The hard part isn’t believing weather matters. It’s acting market-by-market without guesswork, including smaller markets you never have time to watch.

See the workflow
  • You watch a few big geos; the long tail gets ignored
  • Demand shifts by market, not nationally
  • Forecasts change mid-week
  • Manual rules don’t scale
  • Most teams leave this money unclaimed
What you see
Forecast says: sunny weekend
Guess: boost ads?
One market at a time
No confidence, no proof
What the model sees
5-day UV trajectory + cloud cover
Temperature × humidity interaction
Weekend vs weekday elasticity
Channel saturation signals
Market-by-market response curves
Causal Demand Model · your data
Precision

Not playbooks. A demand model trained on your data.

WeatherVane builds a multi-variable demand model from your sales, spend, market-level weather, and calendar signals. It doesn’t guess from a forecast—it calculates the demand response curve for each product-market pair.

The output is specific: which channel to shift, how much, when to start, when to stop, and how confident the model is in the call. Every recommendation includes the math behind it.

Explore an example
  • Channel-specific recommendations
  • Timing windows (start/stop)
  • Estimated incremental impact
  • Evidence attached to every call
Southwest United States
What's happening
UV climbing7 → 11+ over 48 hours
Cloud coverUnder 10% through Monday
Temperature102°F / 18% humidity by Saturday
What to do
Shift budget+$600 (Shopping, SPF 50+)
Incremental revenue (est.)$8.7k
WindowFri 6am to Mon 6pm
ConfidenceHigh (tightens as forecast approaches)
Scale

A weekly plan for every market, with daily alerts when it changes.

WeatherVane monitors every market as forecasts update. You get one weekly brief, then daily alerts only when the recommendation materially changes.

If the signal isn’t strong enough, we pause instead of guessing.

See coverage
  • Market-by-market coverage
  • Daily monitoring, low-noise alerts
  • Pauses when uncertain
  • Designed for busy teams
Market coverage
PhoenixEst. +$3,100
UV 11+ · 108°F · Clear skies
Increase +$400 (Shopping)
Los AngelesEst. +$1,800
Marine layer clearing Fri
Increase +$250 (Search)
New YorkEst. +$2,600
Clearing skies · UV 8
Increase +$300 (Meta)
SeattlePaused
Overcast · Not enough signal
Paused
Not enough signal
Proof

Every recommendation shows its work.

Each call ships with backtests run on your own sales history, calibrated uncertainty ranges, and the specific conditions that would invalidate the recommendation.

When we can run holdout experiments or causal shock analysis, we show those results. When we can’t, we label the estimate clearly. No black boxes.

See the evidence
  • Backtests on your history
  • Calibrated uncertainty ranges
  • Break conditions that flip the call
  • Holdout-ready experiments
Evidence \u00b7 Sunscreen
Evidence attached
How confidence builds over time
7 days outRough direction · could shift
3 days outGetting precise · ready to act
24 hours outLocked in · high confidence
Why we trust this signal
BacktestsShown on your history
ValidationShown where applicable; otherwise labeled estimate
Breaks whenCloud cover exceeds 60%
Already ruled outHolidays, promotions, stockouts
Hands passing a bottle of zinc sunscreen SPF 100+ in front of the Parthenon at golden hour
When the sun hits, the window opens.
Children in colorful raincoats playing joyfully in the rain
Every forecast shift is a demand signal.
Rain gear · +340% search volume

A Large Causal Demand Model

WeatherVane doesn’t guess. It trains a multi-layer demand model across hundreds of weather variables, time signals, your sales history, ad and marketing spend, inventory positions, and other company data—across thousands of geographic markets. The output: ad and marketing efficiency recommendations, expected revenue lift, and inventory guidance, delivered weekly with daily alerts when conditions shift.

INPUTSHIDDEN LAYERS···OUTPUTS🌡️Temperature☀️UV index🌧️Precipitation💨Wind / Pressure📉Weather deltas📈Sales history💰Ad & mktg spend📦Inventory📅Seasonality🕒Time signals🌍Geography🎯Ad efficiency📈Revenue lift📦Inventory guidanceConfidence score⚠️Break conditions
Thousands of learned weights · 1,000+ geos · 100+ variables · Weekly recommendations · Daily alerts
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Pricing

Monthly platform fee by default, with optional outcome-linked structures for enterprise contracts.

Best fit for brands spending $50k+/mo on paid channels across multiple markets.
Beta Pilot (Charter)
Charter
$7,500/mo
Normally $10,000/mo. 25% off for the first 6 months. Limited seats.
  • Weekly plan + daily alerts when the call changes
  • Evidence bundle per recommendation
  • Onboarding + measurement setup
Agency / Multi-brand
Partner
From $15,000/mo
Beta partner discounts available.
  • Client-ready proof bundles
  • Multi-tenant workflows
  • Reporting templates
Enterprise
Custom
Custom
High market count, custom experiments, security and compliance needs.
  • High market count + advanced controls
  • Holdouts and deeper validation
  • Security and compliance alignment
Beta discount applies to the first 6 months and is locked for that period if you join during the beta window. Outcome-linked contract structures are available once measurement design is mutually agreed.
Hands passing a sports drink bottle across a tennis net on a hot day
103°F. Hydration demand spikes 4.2×.
Woman relaxing at home with air conditioning set to 68 degrees
From the court to the living room.

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