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WeatherVane
Thagorus PBC  ·  Pre-Seed  ·  March 2026

WeatherVane helps retail brands forecast weekly demand, understand why it moved, and know when to push or pause spend.

+16% accuracy from
cross-brand training
Company Purpose

WeatherVane helps retail brands make better weekly demand decisions.

It is a weekly operating workflow for the person deciding what to stock, when to spend, and whether a demand move came from weather, promotion, competition, or baseline demand.

The product does three things: forecast next week, explain the driver, and tell the operator whether to push, pause, or wait.

The Problem

Brands still make high-stakes weekly calls with bad causal visibility.

They can usually see the result, but not the reason. So they mistake weather for marketing, promotion for baseline demand, and short-term noise for a lasting trend.

Stock wrong Spend wrong Learn nothing Repeat weekly
Progress DEMAND PREDICTION ACCURACY Single brand +16% M5 benchmark · 100K Walmart time series
NorSari
NorSari
Homesick Candles
Homesick

We already have benchmark proof, partner data, and a weekly product story.

A model trained on pooled data outperforms a single-brand baseline by +16% on held-out demand prediction. Tested on M5, the world’s largest retail forecasting benchmark: roughly 100,000 Walmart SKU-level time series.

For a $10M brand, a cleaner weekly read on demand means materially less overbuying and less wasted paid spend.

NorSari: 44% CAGR over 8 years running on this modeling. Design partner since 2017.
Homesick Candles: Co-founded by Nate, 8-figure exit to WIN Brands. 8 years of demand data.
Technical: +0.405 nats cross-entropy reduction vs. retail-only baseline · 4× the M5 significance threshold
Product

What the buyer gets every week.

Forecast

SKU-level demand with uncertainty, refreshed weekly

Attribution

What’s driving demand: weather, promos, baseline, competition

Timing

When to act and when to wait

“Hold off on ads this week — demand for your candles is weather-driven right now, not promotion-responsive. Wait for the cold front.”

This is valuable because the model has learned across brands, not because it produced another generic dashboard.

Why Now & Moat
Data ingest Model train Predict deploy Brands adopt data compounds The moat is the corpus, not the code.

Why now: the modeling works, the data is reachable, and the pain is weekly. Moat: a pooled corpus that compounds over time.

Market

Start with weather-sensitive retail where timing mistakes are frequent and expensive.

$3.8B
Beachhead SAM for mid-market DTC and omnichannel brands

The first buyer is a marketing, demand, or inventory lead who already feels the cost of making a weekly call with bad signal. Legacy planning suites and generic forecast APIs solve different problems.

Business model: free design partners first, then software subscription for the weekly workflow, with later data/API upside only after the core product is proven.

Team
Nathaniel Schmiedehaus
Nathaniel Schmiedehaus
Founder & CEO

Co-founded Homesick Candles (8-figure exit to WIN Brands). Owns NorSari and leads its marketing (44% CAGR over 8 years). Built WeatherVane’s causal ML architecture and benchmark proof. Solo founder today; first hires are ML/data and commercial.

The Ask
$1.25M to turn benchmark proof into a repeatable software business.
$1.25M Post-money SAFE · $8M cap
18 mo. Runway to prove the workflow
Mo. 6 3 partners live
Mo. 18 10 partners · first paid accounts