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WeatherVane
Thagorus PBC  ·  Pre-Seed  ·  March 2026

Building economic superintelligence by pooling demand data across brands — the way LLMs pooled text.

+16% accuracy from
cross-brand training
The Insight

Every brand is an island. No one has enough data to see the whole picture.

Each brand sits on years of demand data trapped in its own silo. No single brand has enough data to understand what actually drives demand — weather, promotions, competition, or baseline shifts.

But pool the data across brands — the same way LLMs pooled text — and the model gets dramatically smarter for everyone. We’re building the shared corpus that makes this possible.

Why Now

For the first time, the data can be pooled — and the science works.

Scaling laws were proven for economic time series this year (NeurIPS 2024). Commerce APIs opened brand data. Google TimesFM, Amazon Chronos, and Salesforce Moirai proved multi-source training works for time series. The window to build the corpus is open.

Scaling laws proven Commerce APIs open Foundation models validated External signals free
The Proof DEMAND PREDICTION ACCURACY Single brand +16% M5 benchmark · 100K Walmart time series
NorSari
NorSari
Homesick Candles
Homesick

Pooling works. Cross-brand training produces dramatically better predictions.

A model trained on pooled data (retail, macro, weather, competitive signals) outperforms a single-brand baseline by +16% on held-out demand prediction. Tested on M5 — the world’s largest retail forecasting benchmark: 100,000 Walmart SKU-level time series. The pooled model carries knowledge from thousands of sources to every brand on day one.

For a $10M brand, this is the difference between overstocking by 12% vs. 3%.

NorSari: 44% CAGR over 8 years running on this modeling. Design partner since 2017.
Homesick Candles: Co-founded by Nate, 8-figure exit to WIN Brands. 8 years of demand data.
Technical: +0.405 nats cross-entropy reduction vs. retail-only baseline · 4× the M5 significance threshold
The Flywheel
Data ingest Model train Predict deploy Brands adopt data compounds The moat is the corpus, not the code.

Every brand that joins makes every other brand smarter.

Product

What the network unlocks.

Forecast

SKU-level demand with uncertainty, refreshed weekly

Attribution

What’s driving demand: weather, promos, baseline, competition

Timing

When to act and when to wait

“Hold off on ads this week — demand for your candles is weather-driven right now, not promotion-responsive. Wait for the cold front.”

No single brand can generate these outputs alone. The cross-brand corpus decomposes each SKU’s demand into signals only visible when you pool enough data.

Market

This isn’t analytics software. It’s a shared data network.

$4.2B
TAM $42B  /  SAM $3.8B  /  SOM $38M

Retail demand planning software (Gartner, 2025). Beachhead: 80,000 Shopify brands underserved by enterprise tools — high data-pooling upside, fast sales cycles.

SaaS subscription scaling with SKU count. Target $100K ACV.

Team
Nathaniel Schmiedehaus
Nathaniel Schmiedehaus
Founder & CEO

Co-founded Homesick Candles (8-figure exit to WIN Brands). Founded NorSari (44% CAGR, 8 years). Built WeatherVane’s causal ML architecture and benchmark proof solo. 10+ years in DTC demand.

The Ask
$1.25M to sign 10 design partners and build the corpus for Series A.
$1.25M Post-money SAFE · $8M cap
18 mo. Runway to Series A
Mo. 6 3 partners live
Mo. 18 10 partners · corpus ready